In 1665, Isaac Newton went home.
In light of the bubonic plague spreading across Europe, Cambridge University shut its doors, forcing students to return to their native towns and villages. There was little to suggest Newton would make particularly good use of his time at Woolsthorpe Manor, the modest homestead on which he'd been raised. Though he'd made it to Cambridge, he'd been an erratic student in his youth, pulled in and out of school by a mother who sought to make him a farmer. He'd struggled with anger issues, too: Newton only ascended to the top of the class after a schoolyard bully punched him in the stomach and gave him the desire to inflict a humiliation of his own; among a "List of Sins" he made for himself, Newton confessed to threatening to burn down the house with his stepfather and mother inside.
Like many, Newton mellowed after his moody teenage years. Returning home to Woolsthorpe this time, his faculties sharpened by his time at Cambridge, Newton experienced something of an awakening. In isolation, he found the space and time to focus, turning his mind to the theories that would define him. In a darkened chamber, Newton bore a tiny hole into the shutters so he could study the composite nature of light, marking how a prism showed its spectrum. From the window of his bedroom, he watched an apple fall to the ground, wondering what caused it. Over a year in quarantine, Newton formed theories on integral calculus, optics, and universal gravitation. History remembers these twelve months as Newton's Annus Mirabilis, his Year of Miracles.
May this time of solitude bring your own set of revelations.
Here's what else you'll learn about today...
🐈 Murakami's advice for riding out a storm
🌊 Life in Venice and seeing with clear eyes
📈 The winners and losers in the stock market over the past month
🐟 The streaming minnow benefitting from the virus
🔍 A storied detective's request to wash your hands
🦢 The Wing's meltdown and a computer that smells
😷 Plenty of VC and Chief of Staff jobs, virus be damned
🗿 Two riddlers facing-off
If you're new to The Generalist, you might enjoy last week's piece on "The World After the Coronavirus."
🐰 Overheard
(Words worth pondering)
👍 Good news
(The antidote to the apocalypse)
Venice's water runs clear
Free of the cruise ships, water taxis, and tourists, Venice's system of canals has returned to nature. Without the constant churning of the muddy seafloor, the city's water has taken on a clarity not seen in years with shoals of fish and sea-plants suddenly visible. Venice's reduced traffic echoes what is happening in America's metropolises: automotive activity in NYC is down 50% from last year, while significant reductions have been observed in LA, Atlanta, Seattle, and Chicago. Emissions have fallen in step, but it may be too soon to herald Covid-19 as a force for climatic good. With many expecting governments to stimulate economic recovery however possible after quarantine ends, C02 levels may spike, as they did after the last financial crisis. That's caused some to brainstorm ways to use the current crisis to push for enduring change. One suggestion? Bailing out only those airlines that commit to stringent emission reductions.
Some viruses are good
For the first time, scientists have used CRISPR's DNA-editing tool inside of a patient. Operating on a subject with a rare genetic disorder that results in blindness, doctors injected microscopic droplets into the patient's eye. Strangely enough, the delivery mechanism for these droplets is a virus — entirely harmless — which carries instructions to cut out the gene that causes impoverished vision. Doctors won't know if the procedure has worked for a few weeks, but it represents a remarkable evolution for the technology.
The craft sanitizer movement
Infuriated by the rising price of hand sanitizer, Chad Butters, founder of Eight Oaks Distillery, decided to take action. Instead of making bourbon, rum, and whiskey as usual, Butters turned his operations to making sanitizer of his own, using the high-proof alcohol he had on hand. Others have followed suit, donating the fruits of their labor to local charities. Expect an army of plaid-flanneled hipsters to turn their hand to concocting small-batch, artisanal sanitizer in their garages soon enough.
🖼️ 1000 words
(Something to look at)
It has been difficult to keep up with the markets over the past month. To better understand what's been happening, I spent time looking through some of the biggest movers over the last 30 days, selecting a sample that spans industries. This is not financial advice, as I hope is clear from the more abstract nature of the discussion; rather, a few emerging narratives worth watching:
No more fun. A coterie of MGM execs swooped in to buy the company's stock on Thursday, providing succor during a time in which Nevada has ordered gaming properties to close for a minimum of 30 days. While many are expected to turn to online gambling — some Americans have been receiving texts offering $250 in credit and the message, "Stuck at home? We've got you covered" from illegal offshore operations — other forms of diversion are also suffering. Carnival Cruises sank 71.8%, Royal Caribbean fell 78.3%, and event promoter Live Nation fell 55.1%. As might be expected, the airline industry, including American (63.6%) and Delta (63.4%), was mauled. Collective sentiment suggests it may be some time before Americans get to kick back on a beach and play a few hands.
Banking on a cure. Despite expectations that a vaccine will take 12-18 months to come to market, biotech stocks have risen rapidly. Moderna was joined by Gilead (9.3%), Regeneron (9.8%), Inovio (98.4%) and BioNTech (43.6%) in gaining value over the past month. Each company seems to be taking a slightly different approach: Gilead has seen its solution Remedesivir test well in camels, Moderna is running concurrent human and animal trials to save time, and BioNTech has teamed up with Pfizer to develop a solution. Elsewhere in the healthcare sector, insurer UnitedHealth fell along with others in their space as they waived out of pocket costs related to Covid-19.
The benefits of virtual. Over the past two weeks, I have gone from spending less than 30 minutes a day on Zoom to 3-4 hours. As you might have heard, the teleconferencing solution has been something of a darling, rising 24%. A less-heralded player, Teladoc, a telemedicine solution rose with it. Peloton, another company that takes a typically IRL product and provisions it online, fell 14.7%.
Different treatment for food distributors. Once on the green mile, Blue Apron has earned a stay of execution: the company's shares have skyrocketed over the past month, buoyed by an increase in demand. The meal-kit business is staffing up as a result. Interestingly, Grubhub is not receiving anything like the same treatment. Despite, NYC being on lockdown, and food delivery likely to increase, GRUB has fallen 45.6%. That appears to be a consequence of an expected contraction in supply as restaurants close, along with the company's decision to suspend collecting $100MM worth of commissions. Assuming a sufficient number of restaurants do stay open, it's hard to imagine Grubhub won't benefit.
Disaster gear. Clorox's success may not be much of a surprise, but it's another purveyor of apocalypse chic that saw the biggest gains. Manufacturer of rubber gloves, Top Glove saw gains of 10.30% buoyed by a sharp increase in demand. While just last year, the industry was said to have been beset by oversupply, Covid-19 has caused a run on inventory that surpasses those during the H1N1 and SARS outbreaks. It may take a while to meet the current need: because of a reduced labor force, the lead time for manufacturing gloves has increased from one month to four. Intriguingly, 3M, the maker of N95 masks is down 21.2%. During the SARS crisis, sales for the company's masks grew rapidly.
High-dividend stocks pick up heat. Shares in B&G Foods, the CPG business behind staples like Cream of Wheat, Green Giant, and McCann's Oatmeal, rose 27.5% in the last month. While some of that may be due to an expected shift to low-cost comfort foods in the face of a recession, B&G's dividend yield of 14% is another major factor. As investors look for regular income amidst market chaos, many are touting other high-yield stocks including Verizon, AT&T, IBM, and WellsFargo.
📡 Signal
(One exploding Google Trend)
As streaming giants battle for attention, a small Austin-based startup is slipping beneath the radar. Given the growth trajectory above, that may not be the case for long. Restream helps streamers go live simultaneously across 30+ social platforms including Twitch, Facebook, YouTube, and Mixer. While that's a valuable offering at the best of times, it's particularly suited to the current moment: a captive audience is looking for new content, and creators have a unique opportunity to grow their following. That's led to sites like Twitch increasing average daily concurrent viewers by 12% YoY, and new use cases — like funeral live streams — proliferating. With only $3.3MM in outside capital, the company founded in 2014, may be positioned for a breakout year.
🛣️ The Detour
(Oddly fascinating)
At a time in which the fate of many rests in the hands of our medical professionals: the story of a doctor whose powers of perception inspired a literary icon. Dr. Joseph Bell was deeply respected as a surgeon, earning praise from Florence Nightingale for his work, but it was for his diagnostic abilities that he attracted most attention. Bell consistently astounded both students and patients with his talent for observation, furnishing accurate assessments in a matter of seconds.
For example, Bell was able to determine that a patient had burned their leg while drunk on a Saturday evening without hearing the account or seeing the patient's injury. He had noticed a limp as the man walked in, a slight char on the trouser leg, and mud on the knees. Since it had last rained on Saturday, the day a working man received his weekly wage, Bell deduced that the man had spent his money on drink, fallen down in the wet mud, tried to dry his clothes by the fire, and fallen in.
In another instance, Bell recognized that a patient had been in the Highlands regiment, based on the man's swaggering gait. When the patient refuted the claim, claiming to have never been involved in the military, Bell was so certain of himself that he induced the patient to remove his shirt in front of his class of medical students. Ashamed, the man finally did so. A large "D" was branded on his chest, the mark of a deserter.
You may have guessed the figure Bell would inspire; among his students at the University of Edinburgh, was Arthur Conan Doyle, the creator of Sherlock Holmes. A fitting tribute. Beyond his literary impact, Bell leaves another legacy: hand-washing. The doctor was among the first physicians to insist his students scrub up before working with pregnant women, a mandate that is believed to have saved a considerable number of lives.
More on the Scottish sleuth, here
🐒 Long tail
(Best of the rest)
The Wing gets clipped
In its stated mission of elevating women, The Wing is worthy of praise. The execution of that mission bears a closer look. Since its inception the co-working space has sanded down feminist theory to anodyne, digestible slogans like "Fork the Patriarchy" and "Women Doing Whatever the Fuck They Want" in the knowledge that they will make popular totes and sweatshirts. Beyond serving as a purveyor of important ideas provisioned as banally as possible, The Wing may not be a very nice place to work. This week, former and current employees detailed a cutthroat and ruthless culture that belies the company's rose-tinted aura.
A nose for danger
Intel has developed a computer chip capable of differentiating between 10 hazardous scents including ammonia and acetone. In addition to being used to detect the presence of dangerous chemicals, the Loihi chip may be useful in the healthcare space: both Parkinson's and cancer may have detectable smells.
"A celebrated disease"
Michael Saylor, CEO of business intelligence firm Microstrategy, has refused to allow his 2K employees to work from home. Framing contracting coronavirus like a receiving purple heart, Saylor wrote "It is soul-stealing and debilliating [sic] to embrace the notion of social distancing...In the absolutely worse case, the overall life expectancy worldwide would click down by a few weeks...1 out of 500 people will pass on a bit sooner, or not, or die from a celebrated disease instead of just old age." At least there is some irony in an intelligence firm run by an imbecile.
Cuffing season gets a boost
In hopes that a thousand love stories will bloom, Tinder is opening up its app. Starting next week, all users will be permitted to use the company's "Passport" feature, which allows daters to view potential matches around the globe. The app's management hopes "you use the Passport feature to virtually transport yourself out of self-quarantine to anywhere in the world."
🔟 Jobs
(The jobs you need, and no more)
VC Associate - Point72 - NYC → Apply here
VC Associate - 645 Ventures - NYC→ Apply here
Chief of Staff - Digital Ocean - NYC → Apply here
Chief of Staff - Redesign Health (New Venture) - NYC → Apply here
GM - goPuff - Chicago → Apply here
Chief of Staff - Nomad Health - Frisco, TX → Apply here
VC Principal - Tola Capital - Seattle → Apply here
VC Associate - AngelList - SF→Apply here
Product Manager - Cheetah - SF → Apply here
Chief of Staff, Office of COO - Twilio - SF → Apply here
🧩 Puzzler
(A question, conundrum, or riddle to mull over)
Four men sit down to play, doing so through the night until the break of day. They played for gold, not for fun, with separate scores for every one. When time came to square accounts, they all had made fair amounts. How can you this paradox explain: if no one lost, how could all gain?
Two riddlers have dominated this section over the past few months: CLL and NMT. These puzzling behemoths were quick to deliver the answer, both submitting a correct response within a couple hours of last week's email. But while NMT's accuracy is commendable, CLL got the job done in record time. The answer:
Carrying too much weight in the balloon, the three men stripped down to try and stay aloft. When that didn't work, they drew straws. The man that drew the shortest straw, half of a toothpick, was forced to jump to his demise.
Congratulations to them both, and may they continue to deliver as the great rivals of this newsletter.
Thank you for reading. Please stay indoors as much as you are able, and enjoy a restful Sunday. 💙