🍳 Brunch Briefing | No Code
Virt-a-Mate, Locomotive Firers, and John von Neumann
In this week’s BB, you’ll learn about…
🐝 The risk threshold of Honey’s founders
⚙️ The relationship between Python and a Polynesian language
🏫 Why you shouldn’t have gone to college
💔 The worst way to get over an ex
🤑 Getting paid to quit your job
🌳 Gigs for climate warriors, gamers, and Jared Kushner apologists
☠️ A company headed “to the electric chair”
🧠 Marie Kondo’s betrayal, jasmine rice, and a under-heralded genius
—
🕰️ If you’re new to The Generalist, you can check out our recent breakdowns of Synthetic Meat, and Prison, and Addiction.
💓 If you’ve been digging the Briefing and would like to help, the #1 thing you can do is share this email with someone brainy and fun to be around.
🐰 Overheard
(Quotes from clever people)
In college, I built a bungee jump out of a tree. I enjoyed the process of creating something out of nothing. I saw with computers, there was the ability to create something new, where one person could make something really impactful.
After taking a more metaphorical leap of faith in 2012, Honey founder Ryan Hudson was rewarded handsomely this week. Just 16 months after being sued by rival RetailMeNot for patent infringement, the Chrome extension savings platform sold to Paypal for $4B, roughly 16x of 2019’s expected $250MM in revenue.
That’s good news for the company’s first backers like Mucker Capital. The LA early-stage vehicle is expected to earn $280MM from it’s $3MM invested, returning their $20MM inaugural fund many times over. Not bad.
⚙️ Monitoring: No Code
(One space worth keeping an eye on)
The problem: a paucity of programmers. There are more speakers of Sunda, a Malayo-Polynesian language, than those versed in Java, C, SQL, Ruby or any other programming language combined, with a mere ~26MM binary ballers worldwide. In the US, this limited supply has led to 223K unfilled software engineering positions, an issue unlikely to be solved any time soon given that colleges produce just ~30K CS graduates a year.
The solution: build an army of ‘citizen developers’. Instead of relying on the tech team to handle anything that might require launching Sublime, companies are increasingly turning to tools that allow lightly-trained normies to start shipping. The companies below are enabling the transition.
Web apps. Despite launching in 2013, Webflow only raised their ($72MM!) Series A in August of this year. Both the size and timing of that round is testament to the strength of the business, and the demand for a drag-and-drop web app builder that goes beyond the limited feature set of Squarespace. Others have tried to chip away at their market share, though few have raised venture money. Given Webflow’s own fundraising journey, that may not mean much. Examples include Bubble, ($6.3MM seed from SignalFire) Boundless, Landen, and Sizzy.
Databases. Though Airtable and their $170MM war chest looms large in the consciousness of venture capitalists, there is plenty of dynamism in the space. Less glossy competitors at scale include Caspio, Kintone (a subsidiary of Cybozu), Smartsheet (NYSE:SMAR), and Quick Base (acquired by Visa Equity Partners earlier this year). In many cases, these companies offer features far beyond database creation and management. The most novel company in the space may be the much younger Clay, which adds data enrichment and automation to a database core. I’ve had the chance to see what these guys are working on and am rather amazed.
Internal tooling. Rather than devoting resources to spin up software for in-house processes, companies can turn to Retool. By providing ‘building blocks’, Retool removes the need to create common automations like issuing a Stripe refund, exporting data for GDPR compliance, or managing promo codes. Parabola, which raised $2.2MM from Matrix Partners, appears to offer similar value, as does Standard Library ($4MM from Stripe, Liquid 2). While most of these tools are generalizable, there are exceptions: Documate focuses on saving time for attorneys.
Mobile apps. If you can use a spreadsheet, you can create an app. That’s the promise of platforms like Glide, which raised $3.8MM from First Round. With just a few minutes, users can work from CRM, Directory, Expense Report templates to build something of their own. Thunkable ($3.4MM from Lightspeed and NEA), Andromo, Appypie, and Adalo make a similar pledge, though seem to be more flexible.
Where next? There is significant overlap across categories, with many database platforms powering internal tooling, and web app tools edging into mobile. I expect those that lead with a clear initial enterprise use-case to have most luck.
In the long-term, much of this may not be done by humans at all. Well-funded companies like Diffblue and Builder.ai are teaching AI to write code, reducing the burden on developers. In 5-10 years, we may be talking about no code platforms enabling the creation of the synthetic software developers, capable of building entire codebases from designs, or descriptive text.
—
* This is a space I’ll be spending a great deal of time on over the next few months. To that end, if you have any suggested resources or connections, I’d be very glad for a note. I’ll be sure to share my broader learnings with you all.
🖼️ 1000 words
(Something to look at)
School will not save us. According to a new Brookings report, those with higher levels of education are more likely to lose their jobs to AI. Using a methodology developed by Michael Webb, a PhD at Stanford, the report assessed the imbrication between AI patents and job descriptions. High levels of overlap may suggest a high exposure to AI. In addition to affecting the scholarly, the same technique suggests high-earners, Asian-Americans, and men are at particular risk, given their overrepresentation in technical and professional roles.
Across all education levels, the jobs most at risk of being automated included: locomotive firers, wastewater treatment plant operators, and political scientists. I’ll let you guess which I majored in.
😱 Signs of the apocalypse
(Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair!)
Virt-A-Mate. Subreddits and message boards are alight with hobbyists using 3D modeling tools and virtual reality to recreate sexual experiences with ex-girlfriends, and celebrities. While 3D modeling used to be the domain of experts, tools like Foto2Vam transform photos into virtual faces, online marketplaces like Rendererotica provide a destination to buy CGI belly-buttons, breasts, feet, and just about anything else, and platforms like Virt-A-Mate provide software to create sexual simulations. That’s opened the door for laymen to concoct elaborate virtual fantasies, often based on their own life. The need for more robust right-to-likeness laws will only become more important as 3D modeling improves.
🚢 Shipping news
(The most interesting product launch this week)
Ten large to leave the Bay. A few weeks ago, I had the chance to meet up with some friends that live in San Francisco and work in tech. As one of them said, “it’s kind of like school — at some point, everyone graduates from SF.” According to him, many friends planned to leave in the next few years, overwhelmed by the cost of living and tech-focused monoculture.
MainStreet believes they have an antidote to that, offering $10K to SF residents willing to move to a more affordable city. In exchange, recipients agree to work remotely for one of MainStreet’s partner companies who pass on a finder’s fee to the startup. Beyond the money itself, MainStreet provides office space, training on remote work tools, and community. In that respect, the MainStreet is similar to Terminal, only focused on Middle America as opposed to Canada. The company hopes that, in the long-term, these communities will become tech hubs in their own right.
While the launch strategy is attention-grabbing, I’m intrigued to see what demand looks like once the novelty wears off. Becoming the first port of call for jaded Valley devs would certainly be valuable, but is $10K a sufficient inducement for a high-earning cohort?
—
Honorable mentions: Cybertruck, Mouseless, and Base.
📈 Jobs for interesting people
(Openings at companies and funds building something cool)
VC Analyst - Pantera Capital (SF). A Coinbase account and subscription to “Off the Chain” may not cut it.
Partnerships - First Round Capital (SF). Great people, killer record, and an awesome culture. Prepare for fierce competition.
Head of Marketing - Retool (SF). For reasons outlined above, I think this is a very cool opportunity. Potential breakout company.
Product Analyst - The Athletic (SF). The reports of media’s death have been greatly exaggerated.
Senior Analyst, Strategy- Pax Labs (SF). Get that green. In more ways than one.
Program Manager - Roblox (SF). I downloaded this game, and I’m going to be honest, I don’t get it. But 100MM people disagree with me. Listen to them.
Venture Fellow - Urban Us (NY). Fight climate change and save cities. Would have been all over this for grad school summer.
Venture Associate - Thrive (NY). Good opportunity for anyone not morally opposed to lining the pockets of Jared Kushner, and potentially Mohammed bin Salman.
Venture Fellow - BioGenerator (St. Louis). Get out your lab coat and protective goggles.
Head of Product - Public (NY). In addition to a number of open roles, the company is giving folks the chance to gift stock, for free. Pretty rad.
Director of Real Estate - Common (NY). Incredible serial founder that seems to have cracked the co-living code.
Senior FP&A Analyst - Ro (NY). Great team with a big vision, and a very cute office dog.
Senior Operations Manager - Revel (NY). This company is on a tear. $27.6MM in new funding, less than two years after conception.
Head of Success - Main Street (NY). Not that Main Street. Daniel Vicioso is a dynamic leader with a unique connection to the space. Great role for someone ready to get in on the ground floor.
🐒 Long tail
(Best of the rest)
“He died for his country…now it’s her turn.” A researcher of media manipulation at Harvard Kennedy traces the connection between his friend’s wedding photo and the spurious #DraftMyWife campaign used by the right-wing in the 2016 election.
It’s not just trade. The OECD released its growth projections for next year, along with a warning: neither short-term monetary policy fixes nor alleviations of trade tension will be enough to thwart economic deterioration. Rather, a fundamental rethink of climate policy is necessary to ensure business is not critically hamstrung over the long-term.
No digital dollar. Fed chair Jerome Powell poured cold water on the idea of a national crypto-currency to rival China. Powell argues that with 26% of domestic payments still made in cash, and a number of “fast and reliable digital payment services,” a blockchain-based solution isn’t yet necessary. Others fear that failure to act could result in China’s digital renminbi becoming the de facto reserve for the digital era. I’m disappointed.
Marie, how could you? Marie Kondo, patron saint of parsimony has turned her back on her acolytes by launching an e-commerce store, full of products that have passed the diminutive organizer’s ‘joy check.’ Many seem destined to end up crammed at the back of the cabinet.
Send it to voicemail. When oncology nurse Nina Belis received a call from someone purporting to be from the FBI, she listened. Over the course of a few phone calls, she transferred $340K from her bank and into accounts apparently safeguarded by the agency. In doing so, she gave over her life-savings. Belis is one of thousands taken in by robocallers every year, with roughly $30MM lost in the first nine months of 2019.
Jimmy versus Facebook. Wikipedia founder, Jimmy Wales has launched a Facebook competitor, WTSocial. Rather than being ad-supported, users are encouraged to donate. They’re also encouraged to actively combat fake news by editing problematic headlines. Since opening the doors on November 6th, the company has attracted over 78K members and built up a long waitlist, which includes me.
The strangest game of the year. “Death Standing” is a self-indulgent often boring game. It’s also a paean to the virtue of patience.
Making Enrico Fermi insecure. John von Neumann may be the cleverest person ever to have lived. Blessed with an eidetic memory, Neumann was a master of fields as diverse as Byzantine history, mathematics, economics, and physics. He was also a carouser and lover of fast cars.
The most valuable things to learn in an hour. Suggestions from this HN thread include mastering the art of jasmine rice, wrapping cables, and CPR.
📜 Revisionist history
(Mea culpas and notes from readers)
Sandeep R. was the recipient of last week’s webinar offer. He had the chance to hear to NYU Professor Scott Galloway dissect the decline of WeWork in apparently memorable fashion, and was kind enough to take notes. Highlights below:
A mutual delusion. Softbank smoked its own pipe, creating a ‘consensual hallucination’ with the founder. They marked their own shares up without a check from the market.
A flawed business. Despite positioning itself as a tech company, WeWork’s only tech was an app. That, along with thin margins, no flywheel effects, poor governance (dual class shares, no board oversight), and cheap access to capital contributed to the downfall.
Predictions. WeWork will run out of capital in 9 months, Uber is “on the Green Mile walking to the electric chair," and both Oyo and Opendoor may be next to meltdown.
Additional thanks to Tina H. and Amit S. for vibing on addiction tech, Harry S. for his thoughts on paraplegic e-sport athletes, and Zach P. for some fascinating research on the decline in real wages.
🧩 Puzzler
(A question, conundrum, or riddle to mull over)
What 8 letter word can you remove a letter from, and have a 7 letter word remain, remove another letter and have a 6 letter word, and so on, until a 1 letter word remains?
Hopefully this fiendish teaser will placate NMT who responded to last week’s riddle with both the correct answer and a gripe not to “bring that weak sh*t” next time around. Despite his ill-tempered bravado, Nick was by no means first on the buzzer. That honor goes to Charlie L., who provided the riddle above and is on something of a hot streak. The correct response was:
ENT, as in Eight, Nine, Ten.
Ahh. We also had a new code-cracker join the ranks this week: Nidhi H. Well played.
Thank you all for reading. I wish you a leisurely Sunday that gives you space for some thinking, some time spent with friends, and some relaxing. And for the US readers, a happy Thanksgiving. 💙